While Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe moved to reap a peace dividend and consolidate the process through the Oslo conference scheduled for November 25, President Chandrika Kumaratunga continued to place road blocks in the path of governance, forcing an environment of confrontation.
The significance of the Oslo conference is not so much in the anticipated pledging of funds but rather the political capital to consolidate the peace process given the heavyweight presence expected of US Assistant Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, Britain's Minister for Overseas Development, Claire Short and Canada's Minister for Overseas Development, Susan Whelan, amongst other ministers from donor nations.
Further, the conference itself is to be co-chaired by Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and the Norwegian Prime Minister, both of whom are expected to make opening statements, where a LTTE delegation headed by Chief Negotiator Anton Balasingham will also be present.
This move has far reaching political implications for the ongoing process not only because the LTTE is banned in some of the very countries that will be represented at the conference where the rebuilding and reconstruction of the north east as well as a peace dividend for the south will be taken up, but also due to the LTTE submitting itself to such a forum.
International coalition
That would not only be an unspoken message to the international community of the LTTE's commitment to the peace process but also their submission to the goodwill of the international community towards achieving a lasting peace. Effectively, it would tantamount to an international coalition being put in place to monitor and ensure the success of the peace process.
In addition to the formal sessions, Balasingham is also scheduled to have a private meeting with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, the first ever since the commencement of the peace process.
And despite speculation to the contrary, India too is expected to formally give its blessings for the Oslo parley by way of a statement.
These developments in turn would send a clear signal internationally to investors, tourists and all interested parties that the peace will hold in Sri Lanka, thereby leading to a conducive climate for economic development in the country.
Thus, the significance of the Oslo meeting is not so much the financial pledging but the political capital which can be invested on the entire peace process, ensuring stability in the country.
That is not to say there will be no financial pledging, with sufficient funds expected to tide the government over the next six months including for the south until the donor consortium gets underway in Japan mid 2003, and it will be a loud and clear message to the detractors of the process that the full force of the international community is behind the process, the likes of which have never been seen during earlier attempts at peace making in Sri Lanka.
Towards this end, there is increased involvement by Japan in the entire process as well, following the visit of Akashi last week and a team from Japan is now expected this week to participate at the subcommittee meeting on north east development, scheduled for November 18, in Kilinochchi.
This team from Japan will be present in an observer capacity as the subcommittee comprising four delegates each from the government and the LTTE under Norwegian facilitation will commence sittings in Kilinochchi. The four-member government team for this meeting which was the replacement for the Joint Task Force as finalised in Thailand will be led by Ambassador Bernard Goonatilleke while the LTTE team leader will be the Head of its Political Wing, S.P. Tamilchelvam.
While this meeting gets underway in Kilinochchi in the presence of a team of observers from Japan on Monday, November 18, Economic Reforms Minister Milinda Moragoda will be meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister, Yorika Kawaguchi the very day to follow up on the pledging conference mid next year in the Land of the Rising Sun. Earlier, Constitutional Affairs Minister G.L. Peiris too met with Kawaguchi followed by Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando.
It is at the meting in Japan that the big bucks are expected, thus signalling both the political clout from Oslo and the financial muscle in Tokyo to consolidate the peace process and move into top gear economic development of the country and the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the north east.
Despite this international support to help the country overcome its current woes, President Kumaratunga continued to play to a political agenda, attempting to trip the Prime Minister at every turn, the latest being over the new ministerial appointments.
It was only last week, in her address to the nation, Kumaratunga struck a political note stating she intends placing an economic programme before the country shortly, obviously as a counter to the government's policy.
How she intends implementing such a policy is another matter but the irony in her address particularly on issues of governance and corruption (see Editorial on page 8) would not have been lost on the public.
Clear signal
And the absence of the Prime Minister and the UNF members at the ceremony to mark the President's eight years in office was the clearest signal the government sent that they were privy to the moves by Kumaratunga to undermine the government and that cohabitation was a myth.
It will be recalled, the President's efforts at ousting Prime Minister Wickremesinghe by wooing the Muslim Congress and 12 UNPers through an out coup manoeuvre came a cropper last week with not only the SLMC rebels calling off their boycott of parliament, but the UNP MPs approached by the PA big wigs themselves spilling the beans to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe.
To make matters worse, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe that very week sent a list of eight names to the President calling for the appointment of seven of them as ministers and one as a deputy, thus shutting the door on any possible defections to the PA camp.
Prior to so doing, the Prime Minister informed the President of the letter to follow.
The President of course did not take kindly to this move and fired a strongly worded letter to the Prime Minister dated November 8, objecting to four of the portfolios mentioned by Wickremesinghe.
Using words such as "perplexed," the President calls into question the appointment of Gampaha District MP, Sarathchandra Rajakaruna as minister for disaster management.
Stating disaster management is a subject under her, Kumaratunga laments there has already been a financial cut for the subject and says she sees no reason for appointing a minister to handle it when it is working very well under her.
Likewise, she also calls into question the appointments of Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena as minister of foreign employment and welfare, Minister D.M. Bandaranayake for paddy cultivation and Hemakumara Nanayakkara for agro production and technology. The argument adduced by the President is that these ministries will duplicate the work of existing ministries.
No sooner this letter was received, the Prime Minister, visibly angry, directed a stern reply be sent, which was duly done on November 10.
Responding to all queries raised by the President, the Prime Minister first dealt with the issue of disaster management stating a separate minister was appointed for the subject since at present it falls under the purview of several ministers.
For example, the Prime Minister states, disasters relating to health, nutrition and welfare, floods, drought and other epidemics are handled by different ministries.
He points out that air, rail and road disasters are handled by the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation, whereas the Ministry of Irrigation looks after floods, earthslips, etc.
Therefore, the Prime Minister says, there is no focal point and there should be a full time minister for disaster preparedness adding that the role played by Kumaratunga in this regard is not implementational in nature.
As for finances, the Prime Minister points out that, in the event of a real disaster she would have had to face, the Finance Ministry would have made available the necessary finances.
Likewise, Wickremesinghe states with regard to the Paddy Cultivation Ministry that it is important to ensure new technology is used since agriculture is now going into areas such as livestock.
The President of course in her letter states, the Prime Minister's recommendation would result in three ministers handling the subject of agriculture, an argument Wickremesinghe rejects.
He says in Kumaratunga's government agriculture was not given the importance it deserved, whereas he intends having one ministry for agriculture and one for paddy cultivation to ensure the best results and cites a report of an Indian expert on the subject, Swaminathan, to buttress his argument.
Emphasis on modernisation
Likewise, with regard to agricultural technology and crop production too, the Prime Minister places emphasis on modernisation as justification for a separate ministry and urges the President to make the appointments quickly to enable his government to execute the mandate of the people.
But even by Friday, there was no response from the President.
Apart from this issue, even with regard to the extension of service of senior officers in the army with eight due to retire by March 2003, the President has maintained a stoic silence despite a written recommendation by the Defence Review Committee that all service personnel be given an extension of service until they reach the age of 55.
The President had earlier put aside a written recommendation by Defence Minister Tilak Marapone that Major General Lohan Gunawardena be made army commander and the present commander be appointed chief of defence staff, an administrative post.
It is in this backdrop, the Prime Minister together with the Defence Minister, Defence Secretary, the Defence Review Committee and the service chiefs met the President recently and urged she accept the new defence reforms as well as the service extensions for the senior officers.
Even on that issue, the President has shown her displeasure but with regard to the service extensions itself, she requested the Defence Review Committee comprising Austin Fernando, Charitha Ratwatte, Lt. Gen. Denis Perera and Major General Asoka Jayawardhana to submit their recommendation, which they did on October 31, only to be met with silence from the President.
What is significant in this regard, is that Maj. General Lohan Gunawardena's extension expires on December 2 and unless the President grants an extension, he will not only be out of the service but also misses out on being army commander. In contrast, Balagalle's tenure has been extended till end December 2003, sealing the fate of all the senior guards.
The irony is that on the one hand the president claims the military should be in a state of preparedness in the event war breaks out, but on the other undermines the defence establishment by delaying tactics such as delaying a response on the question of service extensions for top commanders.
Speculation is also rife that she is keeping her loyalist Balagalle as army chief with former Air Chief Jayalath Weerakkody to be brought in as chief of defence staff.
Following is the text of the letter sent by the Defence Review Committee to the President on October 31.
Extension of service of senior officers of the Sri Lanka Army
On your instructions, the Defence Review Committee has studied the regulations pertaining to the extensions of service of major generals.
02. According to the existing regulations and the practice adopted by the Sri Lanka Army, all major generals have been given extensions of service until they reach the age of 55 years, except Major General A.K. Sooriyabandara.
03. Attention of the Defence Review Committee was drawn to the opinion given by the Hon. Attorney General regarding extension of service of officers of the Sri Lanka Army. This opinion has been forwarded to you by Secretary/Defence (copy attached). The Defence Review Committee confirms the point of view of the Hon. Attorney General quoted below.
"The regulations referred to above confer a discretion on the President. However, in the exercise of such discretion it is imperative that due consideration be given to the recommendations and views of the commander of the army who would be possessed of all relevant material relating to an officer whose extension is sought in the interest of the army."
04. Therefore, the Defence Review Committee recommends that the existing system of giving extension of service on the recommendations and views of the commander of the Sri Lanka Army be continued unless, a disciplinary issue has been proved against any such officer.
05. The Defence Review Committee is in the process of studying the acts and regulations of the three forces and will in the near future propose changes to be made to the acts and the regulations including proposals with regard to the extension of service.
Signed
Mr. Austin Fernando - Chairman
Mr. Charitha Ratwatte - Member
Lt. Gen. Denis Perera - Member
Major General Asoka Jayawardhana - Member
Delay
At the same time, the President was also delaying the appointment of the independent commissions on police, public service, elections and finance despite the names being sent up by the Constitutional Council.
The President broadly hinted at her reservations regarding some of the names in her address to the nation, leading to the possibility the commissions may not be a reality in the near future.
Of course, such a development will affect the PA more than any other party, particularly when it comes to the independent police commission but Kumaratunga appeared to be working to her own agenda.
In fact at the pre-cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Minister Karu Jayasuriya drew the attention of the Prime Minister to this issue stating the UNF owes it to the people of the country to ensure the commissions are appointed.
Replied the Prime Minister, "The names have been sent up to the President and the commissions can be set up by December 1."
The Prime Minister, however, realises the President will act to her own time table and agenda which in political terms would send her on a collision course with the JVP as well, since it too has approved the nominations made to the commissions.
And while the President was blocking these initiatives of the Prime Minister and indicating her opposition to the increased role of the international community in the peace process, messages were also going out of a possible national government with the appointment of a prime minister to the exclusion of Wickremesinghe.
The story spread among the PA MPs to keep them within the fold was that the President would appoint a new prime minister from the UNP opposed to Wickremesinghe and then form a national government with a group of UNPers.
This, it has been said, would preclude those UNPers from being sacked since in terms of the UNP party constitution, the head of government will be the leader of the party and as such, Wickremesinghe would immediately be replaced as party leader and the new leader would not move to sack the UNP MPs who join the national government.
Logic, many MPs were touting last week, prompting Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse to ask Deputy UNP Leader and Power Minister Karu Jayasuriya whether he was contemplating leading a national government.
Jayasuriya dismissed the suggestion outright stating he would never betray the party leader or the party.
National government
However, Ratnapura District MP, John Seneviratne did propose to Jayasuriya the possibility of forming a national government, which the Minister said he would convey to the Prime Minister.
And last week, Jayasuriya discussed the proposal with the Prime Minister who expressed serious reservations about it.
"Can we trust the President to execute our mandate?" Wickremesinghe asked and Jayasuriya replied in the negative.
"That is a problem. It is difficult to trust her," Jayasuriya had said. However the Prime Minister told his senior minister to check with Seneviratne whether the proposal emanated from the President or anyone else in the PA.
Meanwhile, given the killing of a student at the Sri Jayewardenepura University and a UNP pradeshiya sabha chairman, the focus of the Prime Minister was on the JVP when the party's working committee met Monday evening.
Explaining the present situation, particularly regarding law and order, the Prime Minister said there was a concentrated campaign to disrupt the economy and the education system and that the government should be alive to the developments in this regard.
"The UNP must tell the people clearly what the JVP is trying to do and dispel their misinformation campaign. They are trying to drag us back to the 1980s situation by instigating violence and attempting to disrupt the peace process and economic revival of the country. They are trying their old tactics. We have to take a tough stand against the JVP," he said.
Added the Prime Minister, "The budget is tough but we have to get our fundamentals right for economic revival. Chandrika left us an economy in ruin. With the measures we have taken, we can turn the economy around by next year."
Following the Prime Minister was Wijeypala Mendis who called upon the government not to lose sight of the political developments while focusing on the economy.
"We have been given many issues on a platter by the opposition which we must make use of. We must call Chandrika's bluff and expose the mayhem she has visited on our country," he added.
Equally vociferous was Minister Ravi Karunanayake, who accused the police of being thoroughly inactive in dealing with the JVP issue in the university.
"While some innocents were taken in, the accused are running free. Now that they are on the offensive, why don't we look at issues of corruption that were laid by due to cohabitation talk? Let us open up on Airlanka, locomotive issue, car case, etc.," he charged.
Also striking a defiant note was Justice Minister, W.J.M. Lokubandara who heaped praise on SLFP General Secretary, Maithripala Sirisena for the strong stance he took against the JVP.
He said many PA MPs were angry at the role played by the JVP and the attempts to swallow up the SLFP by leading Kumaratunga on and said the government must focus on the dastardly acts of the Marxist party.
Thus, for the government by last week things were looking up, capped by the comfortable passage of the budget. In fact, except the PA and the JVP, all other parties in parliament including the EPDP and the TNA voted with the government, thus ensuring its stability in the run up to the Oslo talks with the LTTE. That the government is guaranteed of 131 votes once again drove home the stark reality to the opposition that only 19 votes were required to achieve a two third majority when it comes to a crunch, 19th Amendment or no 19th Amendment.
And these numbers are already in the bag, having gone underground only until such time the Prime Minister decides to call in the numbers.
Divisions within the party
To make matters worse for the opposition, they goofed up big time in parliament over the committee stage debate on Thursday, thanks to Chief Opposition Whip Mangala Samaraweera, once again bringing into sharp focus the divisions within.
In order for the opposition to be able to debate the individual ministry votes, in terms of standing orders of parliament, at least five days prior notice of a cut in each vote had to be given and accordingly, Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse signed the notice and despatched it to Opposition Whip Mangala Samaraweera, whose duty it was to take the necessary follow-up action and submit it to the secretary general of parliament.
This he failed to do and spotting this faux pas, Government Whip Mahinda Samarasinghe raised a point of order, sending the opposition into a tailspin.
Subsequently, it transpired Samaraweera had bungled big time, leading to severe embarrassment for the opposition, which for the first time in the parliamentary history of independent Sri Lanka had to seek the government's benevolence to enable the debate to continue.
As the Prime Minister himself put it succinctly, "We will give the opposition the time, despite its bungling, to throw mud at us."
However, Anura Bandaranaike, aspirant for the opposition leader's job sought to make capital of the situation blaming Rajapakse for the blunder, only to be told by the Opposition Leader not to get his wires crossed.
"It is different to the time you were opposition leader. Now your sister has delegated the functions and placed people in various positions with separate offices too. They should have done their job," he thundered as Bandaranaike made a quick retreat, possibly fearing a further onslaught by Rajapakse.
Following these developments, Samaraweera very sheepishly approached the Opposition Leader's brother, Basil Rajapakse and said, without blaming anyone for the blunder, they should unite to face the UNP lest they try to divide and rule.
To many PA members, Samaraweera, and not the UNP, appeared as the party's nemesis, first having carelessly misplaced the out coup document and now failing to submit the notice to debate the committee stage.
Fortunately for the PA however, they were dealing with Ranil Wickremesinghe from the green camp, a man who was magnanimous in his victory, agreeing to suspend the standing orders to enable the debate to continue.
Now only if the roles were reversed....